BBM, Sara again lead survey

Publicus polls Marcos at 56%, Duterte at 58% for period Mar. 30-Apr. 6

Former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and running mate Sara Duterte-Carpio remained firmly ahead in another election survey for national posts, this time conducted by Publicus Asia, released Friday with a full month left before the May 9 polls.

According to the PAHAYAG 2022 First Quarter Survey conducted from March 30 to April 6, Marcos maintained his lead in the presidential race, garnering the support of 56 percent of the 1,500 registered voters who participated in the Publicus poll.

Vice President Leni Robredo came in second with 23% of the survey vote, followed by Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso at 9%.

Marcos, Robredo, and Domagoso notched “statistically insignificant” vote share increases of 1%, 2%, and 1%, respectively, compared to their numbers in the March 9-14 Publicus survey.

Only 5% of voters said they were still undecided about their presidential vote, the polling firm added.

Duterte-Carpio also maintained her lead in the vice-presidential survey with a 58% share among the respondents.

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Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan (15%), Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III (11%), and Doc Willie Ong (9%) came in a three-way statistical tie for third place, considering the 3% margin of error, Publicus Executive Director Aureli Sinsuat explained.

He said Duterte-Carpio and Sotto notched negligible 1% gains compared to their vote shares in the March 9-14 survey. Pangilinan earned a 2% increase, while Ong’s numbers dropped slightly by 2%.

Only 6% of voters said they were still undecided about their vice-presidential vote, Publicus added.

“There has been no movement in the presidential and vice presidential races between the second week of March and the first week of April, with all candidates failing to record statistically significant increases in their respective vote shares against the survey’s 3% margin of error,” the firm said in a statement.

In a YouTube video to explain the survey results, Dr. David Yap Jr., Publicus chief data scientist, said he ran 10,000 “Monte Carlo” simulations based on existing survey data from their firm as well as fellow polling firms Pulse Asia, Laylo, and OCTA.

“These 10,000 simulations strongly suggest that Bongbong Marcos is expected to win in the upcoming elections,” Yap stressed.

According to a definition from IBM, a Monte Carlo Simulation, also known as multiple probability simulation, is a mathematical technique used to estimate the possible outcomes of an uncertain event.

The Publicus survey results tally with Pulse Asia’s second published pre-election survey, showing that the Marcos-Duterte tandem’s numbers are steady, making catching up with them “very difficult,” Yap said.

“Theoretically, it can be (done), but difficult. Realistically difficult, though not impossible,” Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Maria Tabunda said previously.

Yap also said survey data “do not capture command votes, bailiwicks, and party machinery.”

“This is where the party allegiances, local executives, and endorsements of groups such as the INC (Iglesia ni Cristo) come into play,” he added.

The PAHAYAG 2022 First Quarter Survey is an independent, non-commissioned nationwide purposive sampling poll conducted by Publicus with 1,500 respondents randomly drawn by the Singapore office of American firm PureSpectrum from its market research panel of over 200,000 Filipinos.

It pointed out that the final survey panel was restricted to registered voters.

“PureSpectrum is a US-based panel marketplace with a multinational presence. Samples provided by PureSpectrum are not affiliated with any bias or political party. All opinions voiced in the interpretation and analyses of the data are those of the writer and/or project sponsor,” Publicus said.

Reacting to the result, the Marcos camp said it “further reinforced his dominance over his rivals” and put the standard-bearer of the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas “on the cusp of being the first majority president to be elected in a multi-party political system.”

“Marcos’ voter preference in the PAHAYAG 2022 First Quarter Survey shows a massive 33 percentage points lead over his closest contender for the presidency,” the party said in a statement.

The PAHAYAG survey results also indicate that support for Marcos’ candidacy continues to firm up among the Filipino electorate “despite the slew of negative propaganda directed at him,” it added.

Marcos also posted overwhelming numbers in major geographical locations—45% in the National Capital Region (NCR), 57% in North Central Luzon (NCL), 46% in South Luzon (SL), and 56% in the Visayas, and 71% in Mindanao.

The survey results, the party said, also noted Marcos’ staggering lead in voter preference over Robredo in North Central Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao remains well above 30%, “attesting to her failure to sway voters despite her camp’s claim of a “groundswell’ of support for her candidacy.”

The Marcos camp stressed that the “genuine message” of their presidential candidate “also resonates with Filipino voters from the D and E economic classes, such that he received 57% and 60% voter preference, respectively.”

Parameters based on respondent age, gender, and location were also utilized in the sample formulation for the resulting sample to conform more closely to the features of the voting population, as defined by statistics from the Commission on Elections, Publicus added.

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