Country poised for trade growth surge – DHL

THE Philippines is set to become one of the fastest-growing trade economies in the world over the next four years, logistics firm DHL said.

The 2025 edition of the DHL Trade Atlas forecast that the country would surge to 15th place from 129th in terms of trade speed, and also jump to 30th from 68th with regard to trade volume, by 2029.

The Philippines, along with India, Vietnam and Indonesia, would be the fastest growing globally, DHL said.

One of the biggest factors driving Philippine trade growth is supply chain diversification, DHL said. As global companies shift production away from China, the Philippines was said to be gaining traction as an alternative manufacturing hub.

Vietnam and Indonesia have already seen benefits from this shift and the Philippines is now catching up, particularly in electronics manufacturing.

“The Philippines, with a manufacturing sector focused more on electronics, has seen more limited benefits from supply chain diversification thus far, but is forecast to see a substantial trade growth acceleration,” the report said.

It also cited electronics as a major contributor to growth as it continued to be the country’s top export.

The Philippines’ top export destinations are the United States, accounting for 16 percent of the total, followed by Japan at 15 percent and China at 14 percent.

On the import side, the country’s top suppliers are China with a 22-percent share, Japan with 9.2 percent and South Korea with 8.1 percent.

“With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market,” DHL Express Asia Pacific CEO Ken Lee said at a virtual media briefing on Friday.

“However, we must approach this promising outlook with a measured perspective, recognizing the uncertainties and volatility that continue to characterize the global business environment,” he added.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc that includes the Philippines is also expected to experience rapid trade expansion, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.0 percent from 2024 to 2029.

DHL said this would outpace North America and Europe, an indication of Southeast Asia’s rising importance in global trade.

The Philippines was said to be playing a growing role in global trade expansion, with trade routes extending to 5,000 km, which presents new opportunities for the country to tap into markets beyond traditional partners.

The DHL Trade Atlas highlighted that global trade would remain resilient despite economic and political headwinds and was expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.1 percent between 2024 and 2029.

Even if the US implements new tariffs and other countries retaliate, DHL said that global trade would continue to expand “but at a much slower pace.”

“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” said Steven Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at New York University of Stern School of Business.

“While the US could pull back from trade — at a significant cost — other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade,” he added.

The report also suggested that US-China trade tensions had not significantly reduced America’s reliance on Chinese goods, indicating that supply chain shifts had not yet led to a major decoupling.