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EDC to temper export growth expectations

The Export Development Council (EDC), a public-private partnership created under the Export Development Act, may temper down the export growth targets in the Philippine Exports Development Plan (PEDP) in light of local and global realities hounding the country’s export performance.

“We might temper it down because when we were drafting the PEDP at that time we were just recovering from the pandemic so the trend was upbeat,” said Bianca Sykimte, director of the Export Marketing Bureau of the Department of Trade and Industry – a member of the EDC. However, she said that with continuing adverse global developments — geopolitics, inflation, slower economic growth — might cause a need to temper the growth expectations.

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The 2023-2028 Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2023-2028 unveiled in June last year had set an ambitious exports growth target of $240.5 billion over the next six years, driven by the country’s eight major export sectors.

The new PEDP showed a starting exports goal of $126.8 billion in 2023, growing to $143.4 billion in 2024, and $163.6 billion in 2025. The country’s exports are targeted to accelerate to $186.7 billion in 2026 and $212.1 billion in 2027 before hitting its final goal of $240.5 billion in 2028.

Sykimte, however, explained that the potential “slashing” in growth targets may be done only in PEDP, but not the Philippine Development Plan (PDP), which was crafted ahead of the PEDP and therefore has more tempered targets. In fact, she said, “We are still hitting the PDP targets.” But the PEDP intended to be more ambitious and the scenario at the time of crafting is less favorable now.

She further said that while they are not yet recalibrating the exports growth target the Council already had discussions about it.

“We’re not yet slashing down the target but we’re anticipating that we will temper down the expectations,” she said. Also considered are the sectors that drive exports. For instance, the semiconductor sector accounts for 40 percent of total exports with expectation for growth uptick this year, but other resource sectors like the resource-based and the agriculture exports are dependent on international prices.

She cited the case of copper which is experiencing lower international prices now. They are also watching the export trend for coconuts because the resource-based products are also big exports growth drivers.

The current six-year PEDP has identified eight sectors as growth drivers — electronics; IT-BPM; minerals; agriculture and agri-based exports; transport products; wearables, fashion accessories and travel goods; chemicals; and home furnishings – to drive the country’s exports and would account for 88.5 percent or $213 billion of total exports by 2028.

The electronics and electrical exports will remain the biggest contributor, reaching $106 .4 billion level in 2028, while the IT-BPM (IT-business process management) would contribute $36.1 billion this year to $63.2 billion on the sixth year of the program.

The minerals sector is expected to chip in $7.7 on the first year of the plan and $19.4 billion by 2028. The agriculture and agri-based exports are expected to reaching up to $8.9 billion in 2028. Export of transport products is targeted to hit $6.8 billion in 2028.

Wearables, fashion accessories and travel goods are expected to accelerate to $4.5 billion on the sixth year of the plan.

Chemicals could end with $2.4 billion, while the home furnishings are seen to improve exports to $1.4 billion by 2028.

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Credit belongs to : www.mb.com.ph

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