Heat, Nuggets dispute 2-1 series lead

(UPDATE) MIAMI: Erik Spoelstra has preached about the value of adversity for months, not shying away from saying that it helped the Miami Heat get to these NBA Finals.

And now Denver is dealing with a little taste of it as well.

Game 3 of the NBA Finals is on Wednesday (Thursday in Manila) in Miami, the series between the eighth-seeded Heat and top-seeded Nuggets knotted at a game apiece. It got that way after Miami rallied to win Game 2 in Denver, 111-108, on Sunday, an outcome that prompted Nuggets coach Michael Malone to openly share frustrations — primarily over a lack of discipline on a lot of possessions.

Jeff Green of the Denver Nuggets crashes to the floor under the basket during the first half in Game Two of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena on June 4, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. AFP PHOTO

“We had a really good film session this morning,” Malone said Tuesday.

In other words, Denver needs to do what Miami did coming out of Game 1.

The Heat faced significant deficits in both games in Denver — 24 points in Game 1 and 15 points in Game 2. And while there was a comeback try in the opener, getting within nine late, the Heat managed to erase the whole deficit and then some in Game 2.

“You're in the finals,” said Spoelstra, seeking his third championship as coach of the Heat. “You're going to be dealing with great players, great teams. You have to find a way to overcome it and make it difficult, and do a lot of things that are tough.”

Wednesday's winner obviously gets the upper hand with a 2-1 series lead, and history will tip in that team's favor as well. When a finals is tied 1-1, the Game 3 winner has gone on to eventually claim the title 80 percent of the time (32 times in 40 past instances). And 2-1 series leaders, regardless of whether they won Game 3 or not, have taken the title 79 percent of the time (49 times in 62 past instances).

The Heat are in the finals for the second time in four seasons, but are playing their first finals game actually at home since 2014 — the 2020 appearance was in the bubble, with no fans in the buildings for most of that experience and only a few family members for the finals.

Hooping at the end of games hasn't been an issue for Miami in this series. The Heat are outscoring Denver, 66-45, in fourth quarters in this series, shooting 64 percent to the Nuggets' 44 percent in the final period and holding a 33-9 edge in points off 3-pointers.

But the first three quarters, they've trended big-time toward Denver. The Nuggets have outscored Miami, 167-138, in those periods, outshooting the Heat 53 percent to 39 percent. Miami has outscored Denver 57-48 on 3s in those quarters, but that's nothing like the unmanageable margin the Nuggets have dealt with in final quarters.

“Just don't get them wide-open looks,” said Denver's Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 34 points, 10.5 rebounds and nine assists in his first two finals games.

There wasn't a lot of worry coming from either side Tuesday, when the teams had to go through the obligatory public workouts as part of the NBA media off-day slate. The Nuggets were loose, smiling a lot. The Heat were doing much of the same.

Moods will change by the end of Wednesday night. One of the teams — either the big pre-finals favorite Nuggets, or the eighth-seeded, nothing-to-lose Heat — is going to be two wins away from a title.