More surprises ahead?

Defying the odds is nothing new in the PBA. Two teams dislodged higher seeds in the Philippine Cup quarterfinals despite a twice-to-win disadvantage so it won’t be a surprise if another upset is pulled in the semifinals.

The semifinal matchups pit No. 1 San Miguel Beer against No. 5 Barangay Ginebra and No. 3 TNT against No. 7 Meralco, both in best-of-seven series starting at the Smart Araneta Coliseum today. In the quarters, San Miguel wiped out No. 8 NLEX and TNT made short work of No. 6 Magnolia without needing a second chance. Ginebra survived a pair of KO games to oust No. 4 Converge while Meralco went the same route to stun No. 2 Rain or Shine.

The setting is perfect for a battle of opposing corporate warships in the Finals. No sibling rivalry between sister teams. The Finals will feature one of four possible clashes – Ginebra against Meralco, TNT against Ginebra, SMB against TNT or Meralco against SMB.

Ginebra has beaten Meralco in four Finals so far with coach Tim Cone claiming the 2015-16 Governors’ Cup, 4-2, 2016-17 Governors Cup, 4-3, 2019 Governors’ Cup, 4-1 and 2021 Governors’ Cup, 4-2. TNT has faced Ginebra in six Finals, winning four with coach Chot Reyes accounting for three and Jojo Lastimosa, one. Siot Tanquingcen and Cone won one each for Ginebra.

SMB has disposed of TNT in six of seven Finals with coach Leo Austria claiming four championships, Jong Uichico one and Ato Agustin one. TNT’s only victory came in the 2010-11 Philippine Cup with Reyes taking a 4-2 decision. Meralco and SMB have faced off only once in the Finals with the Bolts bagging the 2023-24 Philippine Cup, 4-2, under coach Luigi Trillo.

Depth will be a crucial factor in the semifinals. Coaching will also be critical as adjustments will be made in the course of both series. Defensive schemes will play a major role in determining outcomes. Will teams throw a zone and if so, what variations? Will teams switch everything or stick to primary matchups? Will teams play up-and-down or slow the pace? Will teams play small or big? Will teams double at the post or gamble on single coverage? Will teams attack the interior or gun from the perimeter?

Each contender has its own trademark. SMB is No. 1 in offense, rebounding, second chance points and bench firepower. Ginebra is No. 1 in defense, fastbreak points allowed, bench points allowed and FTs allowed. TNT is No. 1 in perimeter points, three-point and four-point percentage. Meralco is No. 1 in blocked shots, field goal percentage allowed, perimeter points allowed and assists allowed. SMB and TNT like to run up the scores with nine Beermen averaging at least 15 minutes compared to 11 KaTropa, meaning second and third units are key contributors. Ginebra and Meralco are defense-oriented, preferring to muzzle with muscle than pour in the points. In the elims, SMB defeated Ginebra, 83-81, and TNT edged Meralco, 100-98, as either game could’ve gone the other way so nothing conclusive.

SMB has three players among the top 15 scorers with CJ Perez, June Mar Fajardo and Don Trollano in the elite circle. The three other teams are represented by one each, Meralco’s CJ Cansino, Ginebra’s RJ Abarrientos and TNT’s Calvin Oftana. Three players are at least 40 – TNT’s Kelly Williams, 43, SMB’s Chris Ross, 40, and Ginebra’s Raymond Aguilar, 40. SMB is the oldest team with an average age of 32.8 then TNT, 32.2, Meralco, 32.1, and Ginebra, 31.5. It’ll be a slam-bang semifinals on the way to the Last Dance.