Tropical Storm Ramil slightly weakens as it lingers off Northern Samar

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Ramil (Fengshen) slightly weakened off Northern Samar early Saturday afternoon, October 18, with its maximum sustained winds easing to 65 kilometers per hour from 75 km/h. Its gustiness is still up to 90 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 2 pm on Saturday that Ramil was last spotted over the coastal waters of Laoang, Northern Samar, at 1 pm.

The tropical storm is moving west at 25 km/h, but PAGASA also said it may remain almost stationary off the coast of Northern Samar in the coming hours.

Based on its latest forecast track, Ramil could make landfall in Catanduanes on Saturday afternoon or evening, and in Camarines Sur on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, October 19. But if the tropical storm’s track shifts slightly southward or downward, landfall would be possible in Albay or Sorsogon on Saturday afternoon or evening.

Afterwards, Ramil is projected to move over the landmass or coastal waters of Bicol between Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, then pass close to or over Quezon’s Polillo Islands on Sunday morning.

Its final landfall could be in Aurora on Sunday morning or afternoon, although PAGASA is still not ruling out the possibility of landfall in northern Quezon or southern Isabela instead of Aurora. Then Ramil would cross Northern Luzon and emerge over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or La Union on Sunday evening.

PAGASA maintained its rainfall outlook for Ramil, covering the next 48 hours. Floods and landslides are expected in areas affected by the tropical storm.

Saturday noon, October 18, to Sunday noon, October 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Cagayan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate, Cebu, Bohol, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands

Sunday noon, October 19, to Monday noon, October 20

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales

Meanwhile, tropical cyclone wind signals remain raised in the following areas as of 2 pm on Saturday:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• northern part of Aurora (Casiguran, Dilasag, Dinalungan)
• Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• Catanduanes
• northern part of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion)
• extreme eastern part of Albay (Rapu-Rapu)
• northeastern part of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz)
• northeastern part of Northern Samar (Laoang, Palapag, Mapanas, Pambujan, San Roque, Mondragon, Gamay)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Apayao
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• rest of Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• eastern part of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Angat)
• eastern part of Tarlac (Camiling, San Clemente, Santa Ignacia, Paniqui, Moncada, San Manuel, Anao, Ramos, Pura, Victoria, Tarlac City, La Paz, Concepcion, Gerona)
• eastern part of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba)
• northern and eastern parts of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Unisan, Gumaca, Plaridel, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Mauban, Calauag, Guinayangan, Lopez, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, San Narciso, Buenavista, San Francisco, San Andres, Mulanay, General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Sampaloc)
• rest of Camarines Sur
• rest of Albay
• rest of Sorsogon
• Burias Island
• Ticao Island
• rest of Northern Samar
• northern part of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Oras, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Taft, Can-avid)
• northern part of Samar (Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan, Calbayog City, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Tagapul-an, Almagro, Santo Niño, Tarangnan, Paranas, Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong)

If Ramil becomes a severe tropical storm, Signal No. 3 would be the worst-case scenario.

The trough and outer rainbands of the tropical storm, as well as the easterlies, are also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to areas not under a wind signal in these regions and provinces:

Saturday, October 18

• Cagayan Valley, Calabarzon, Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Masbate, Caluya Islands, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran

Sunday, October 19

• Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

In addition, there is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges with peak heights of 1 to 2 meters in Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Bicol, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar within 36 hours. Check the specific cities and municipalities here.

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Conditions in seaboards affected by Ramil will remain dangerous in the next 24 hours.

Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Isabela – waves up to 5 meters high
• Seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; eastern seaboards of Babuyan Islands, northern mainland Quezon, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Northern Samar – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Batanes; remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboard of La Union; western seaboard of Pangasinan; eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar and rest of Quezon – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Seaboard of Marinduque; eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands; western seaboard of Northern Samar; remaining seaboards of Bicol and Quezon – waves up to 2 meters high

Ramil could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday morning, October 20.

It is the country’s 18th tropical cyclone for 2025, and the third for October, after Typhoon Paolo (Matmo) and Tropical Storm Quedan (Nakri). PAGASA previously said there may be two to four tropical cyclones during the month.

The Philippines is transitioning to the northeast monsoon or amihan season after the recent termination of the southwest monsoon or habagat season.

La Niña is also underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which means the country may have above-normal rainfall in the coming months. – Rappler.com