Byelection win fuels ongoing U.S. debate: Are Democrats in better shape than polls suggest?

The results of a special election this week poured fuel on a debate raging among American political observers.

The topic: Are Democrats actually in better shape than they appear heading into this year's presidential election?

Because by conventional standards, they seem to be in pretty rough shape. Poll after poll shows Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, nationally and in swing states.

In fact, Trump has never enjoyed surveys this good, not in either of his past two elections, which he won and nearly won.

On the other side, doubters of these polls insist that what matters is results. Real election results. By that standard, Democrats are enjoying a hot streak.

This week they reclaimed the New York City district previously held by Republican congressman George Santos — the accused fraudster infamous for lying about being Jewish, about where he went to school and worked, and about his mother dying in a terrorist attack.

It's no isolated success, either. Democrats defied both the polls and history last year for an incumbent party — they gained a Senate seat, almost held the House, gained two state governorships, took control of four state legislative chambers and won a string of special elections.

'See you in November'

A triumphant-sounding Democratic congressman celebrated Tuesday's result with a taunt about this fall's presidential election.

"We'll see you in November," Rep. Ted Lieu said Wednesday, the day after Democrats won Santos's seat. He ascribed the win to voters recognizing which of the major parties actually cares about governing.

"What are Republicans focused on? Stupid stuff, like baseless impeachments with no evidence, stopping a national security package that's going to improve America's national security, and doing things that no one in America really wants them to do…. The American people want a Congress that actually does something."

Needless to say, Republicans drew contradictory conclusions from the result.

They pointed to the Democrats' advantages in this race: they spent heavily; ran a well-known former congressman and mayor against an unknown Republican criticized for avoiding public events; and in a district with a history of swinging wildly between parties, they capitalized on Santos's inimitable array of personal scandals.

"There are a lot of factors there. That [result] is in no way a bellwether of what will happen this fall," House Speaker Mike Johnson said. "There is a fervour among the American people. People know this country is on the wrong track."

Shift in voter habits

So what's going on here?

What's undisputedly happening is that there's a shift helping Democrats perform better than they once did in low-turnout contests like Tuesday's byelection in New York.

The parties are undergoing a realignment in their voter coalitions — with the college-educated, and the most politically engaged, voters drifting toward the Democrats.

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Just look at the historical trendline.

College-educated voters now constitute nearly half of the Democratic electorate — that's double their share from 2000. These voters now make up a far higher share of the Democratic electorate than the Republican one.

It's a historic reversal: these voters used to identify primarily as Republicans.

Republicans used to win most college-educated voters until 2000, but a gradual shift occurred, and it accelerated during the Trump era, culminating in Democrats winning college graduates by about 12 points in 2020.

These sorts of voters are statistically likelier to turn out in an election like Tuesday's: a low-participation race, during a winter blizzard, to decide a single seat that won't change control of Congress.

This extended a hot streak for Democrats that began in mid-2022, when the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to an abortion, unleashing a torrent of anger and activism on the political left.

Does win streak translate to another presidency?

Democrats have been repeatedly over-performing polls. And not just that: they've been improving on past election results. In four districts that have held special elections since the 2022 midterms, Democrats have improved on their previous score in all four, including by a whopping 15 points in a couple of them.

Is any of this predictive of what might happen in this fall's presidential election?

The head of an election data company acknowledges Democrats have reason to be pleased with recent results.

"They have certainly done very well in special elections," said Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ, in an interview this week.

But he adds a big caveat. These results don't tell us much about a presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

"Special elections tend not to be predictive," McCoy said.

This goes back to the types of voters who show up in presidential versus non-presidential elections. In the midterm elections of both 2022 and 2018, 43 per cent of voters had a college degree.

This is significantly higher than the percentage who had one in presidential elections, six points higher than in 2016 and four points higher than in 2020. Given the close results in presidential swing states, that's a potentially game-changing difference.

Concerns about the fall

The Democrats' lead pollster in the New York race this week, Mike Bocian, said the turnout numbers left him feeling positive about November.

He said the Democratic candidate, Tom Suozzi, tapped into a deep desire of voters for solutions, rather than virulent partisanship.

Bocian lauded Suozzi's centrist message on what's been a difficult issue for Democrats — the border and immigration. Suozzi advocated more border security, but also more legal immigration, and he contrasted that with Republicans' alleged obstructionism after that party blocked a border deal.

"That is where the public is," Bocian told a podcast hosted by The New Republic magazine. "What they want, mostly, is solutions."

Yet he acknowledged lingering concerns about the fall.

One worry is whether lower-propensity voters will turn out in droves for Trump; the former president twice broke a record for most votes received by a Republican candidate.

The other is whether the Democratic base holds together. Young voters, and voters of colour, are unusually disenchanted with Biden, which is a major reason he has fallen behind in the polls.

Bocian said Biden's campaign must communicate to these voters the threat of a national abortion ban should Republicans win this fall.

Behind that, he said, the campaign has to adjust its usual timetable.

Rather than wait until later in the race to contact base voters in a final get-out-the-vote push, he urged immediate outreach.

"I think that's gotta change this cycle," Bocian said. "We need to be reaching out early, often, and making the case to these younger voters and voters of colour."