Russia claims it thwarted Ukrainian attacks. Is the counteroffensive underway?

Ukrainian forces were making a major effort to punch through Russian defensive lines in southeast Ukraine for a second day, a Moscow-installed official said Monday, as Russia's Defence Ministry declared that it had foiled an assault in an illegally annexed region of the invaded country.

Kyiv authorities suggested the attack reports were a Russian misinformation ruse as the Ukrainian military prepares for a widely anticipated counteroffensive after more than 15 months of war.

Vladimir Rogov, a Moscow-installed official in southeast Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia province, said that fighting resumed on its border with the eastern Donetsk region on Monday after Russian defences beat back a Ukrainian advance the previous day.

"The enemy threw an even bigger force into the attack than [Sunday]," Rogov said. The new attempt to break through the front line was "more large-scale and organized," he went on, adding: "A battle is underway."

Rogov interpreted the Ukrainian military movements as part of an effort to reach the Sea of Azov coast and sever the land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

Analysts have long viewed that strategy as likely because it would cut the Russian forces in two and severely strain supplies to Crimea, which has served as a key Russian military hub in the war that started Feb. 24, 2022.

'Plans love silence'

Rogov's comments came after Moscow also claimed to have thwarted large Ukrainian attacks in Donetsk province, near its border with the Zaporizhzhia region.

Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk are two of the four provinces that President Vladimir Putin claimed as Russian territory last fall and which Moscow partially controls.

Russia's Defence Ministry said its forces pushed back a "large scale" assault on Sunday at five points in Donetsk province. The announcement couldn't be independently verified, and Ukrainian officials didn't confirm any assaults.

Ukraine often waits until the completion of its military operations to confirm its actions, imposing news blackouts in the interim. However, the unconfirmed reports fuelled speculation that a major Ukrainian ground operation could be underway as part of the anticipated counteroffensive.

A video published by the Ukrainian Defence Ministry showed soldiers putting a finger to their lips in a sign to keep quiet. "Plans love silence," it said on the screen. "There will be no announcement of the start."

Russian Defence Ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said 250 Ukrainian personnel were killed in the Donetsk fighting, with 16 Ukrainian tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles and 21 armoured combat vehicles destroyed.

"The enemy's goal was to break through our defences in the most vulnerable, in its opinion, sector of the front," he said. "The enemy did not achieve its tasks. It had no success."

In response, the Center for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Telegram that Russian forces were "stepping up their information and psychological operations."

"In order to demoralize Ukrainians and mislead the community (including their own population), Russian propagandists will spread false information about the counteroffensive, its directions and the losses of the Ukrainian army. Even if there is no counteroffensive," a statement on Telegram read.

Fake broadcast declares martial law

For months, Ukrainian officials have spoken of plans to launch a spring counteroffensive to reclaim territory Russia has occupied since invading.

At least two factors have been at play in the timing: the improvement of ground conditions for troop and equipment movement after the winter, and the deployment of more advanced Western weapons and training of Ukrainian troops to use them. Ukraine's Western allies have sent the country more than 65 billion euros ($93.5 billion Cdn) in military aid to help its defence.

Recent military activity, including drone attacks on Moscow, cross-border raids into Russia, and sabotage and drone attacks on infrastructure behind Russian lines, has unnerved Russians. Analysts say those actions may represent the start of the counteroffensive.

Meanwhile, TV and radio broadcasts in several regions of Russia were hacked on Monday, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. A fake broadcast featured a voice impersonating Putin and stated that Ukrainian forces had invaded the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions of Russia.

The impersonator announced that martial law was declared in those regions, where people were urged to evacuate, and all Russians eligible for military duty were being mobilized, Peskov said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies.