Voters in Taiwan reject Beijing’s warnings, elect presidential candidate viewed as ‘troublemaker’

Taiwanese voters have picked Lai Ching-te to be their next president, ignoring China's warnings about the risks that he could bring to relations across the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has previously described Lai, the country's vice-president going into the campaign, as a "troublemaker" and framed the election as a decision between war and peace.

China's reaction to this result will now be closely watched, given the geopolitical implications of any rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

Lai, 64, won 40 per cent of the vote in Taiwan's first-past-the-post system, unlike current President Tsai Ing-wen, who was re-elected by a landslide four years ago with more than 50 per cent of the vote.

The incoming president has vowed to maintain the status quo when it comes to relations with Beijing, following the lead of Tsai.

In a victory speech to his supporters in Taipei on Saturday night, Lai was measured with his comments regarding China, focusing on the need for peace.

"We've written a new page for Taiwan's history of democracy," Lai, long the front-runner in the polls, told reporters after both his opponents conceded defeat.

He said he would maintain the status quo in relations across the Taiwan Strait but that he was "determined to safeguard Taiwan from threats and intimidation from China."

At the same time, he emphasized the need for co-operation and dialogue with Beijing on an equal basis to "replace confrontation," though he didn't give specifics.

DPP wins historic 3rd-consecutive term

"Lai campaigned on continuity with the current Tsai administration's foreign and cross-strait policies, so he will likely not do anything to upset the current status quo in the Taiwan Strait," said Courtney Donovan Smith, a political analyst who is co-founder of Taiwan Report, an online publication.

"Any changes to the cross-strait status quo would almost certainly come from the Chinese side."

Lai's victory means that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has secured the presidency for a historic third-consecutive four-year term.

However, the party lost its majority in Taiwan's parliament, meaning that Lai could struggle to pass some legislation.

"I think Chinese pressure will persist. We've seen what that looks like over the past eight years," said Ian Chong, a non-resident scholar at research centre Carnegie China.

"Beijing may see a weaker mandate for the DPP to add more pressure on the new administration."

Beijing's stance on reunification 'firm as rock'

Prior to Saturday's election, China referred to Lai as a dangerous separatist based on some of his previous comments about Taiwanese independence.

But China's Taiwan Affairs Office struck a gentler tone in its response to Lai's election and did not mention him by name, saying that the results reveal that the DPP "cannot represent the mainstream public opinion" on Taiwan.

"Our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock," it said.

WATCH | China accused of interfering in Taiwan's election:

China accused of interfering in Taiwan’s election

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The number of disinformation and cyber attacks targeting Taiwan has exploded in the run-up to the country’s presidential election. Google alone has removed more than 60,000 fake news channels coming from China.

Such distrust could prove difficult if Lai is to match his ambitions of maintaining peaceful relations with the Chinese leadership.

"Though Lai spoke of hoping for dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping and sharing a meal of shrimp fried rice and bubble tea with him, the Chinese side will likely refuse," Smith said.

"That's unless the Lai administration formally accepts the 1992 consensus or another formulation that includes China's 'one China principle' that states that Taiwan is a part of China."

Taiwan's election took place at a time of growing geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington.

The arms race across the Taiwan Strait and Chinese military pressure on the island Beijing claims as its "sacred" territory is unlikely to end.

"The DPP victory in the presidential race means continuity. Both Taipei and Washington are familiar with each other," Chong said.

"They are aligned on values. Taiwan is one of the few issues with bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress."

Smith agreed, saying that "Lai will continue to work to deepen relations with friendly democracies, particularly the United States."

Younger voters engaged in campaign

Relations with China were on the mind of many voters who headed to the polls in Saturday's crucial election.

"The most important issue when I voted today was who had the best record of defending Taiwan's democracy and freedom," said Yi-min Wang, a 25-year-old student at National Taiwan University.

Wang supported Lai in the presidential race, explaining that he "is the only candidate who has been firm in telling China that the future of this island should be decided by the 23 million who live on this island."

He studies in Taipei and has concerns about the high cost of living in the capital city, but he still believes that relations with China are the most pressing issue when deciding on a presidential candidate.

"A very important task for our next president is to respond to the escalating threats from Xi Jinping," Wang said.

The election campaign saw many younger voters seeking more political discussions around domestic issues in Taiwan, with many focusing their attention away from what are traditionally the leading parties.

It resulted in a show of support, particularly on social media, for Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People's Party.

He ran last in the three-way presidential race but still received roughly a quarter of the vote, emphasizing the changing nature of Taiwanese politics.

Ko appeared open to working with Lai.

"The TPP will play the role of a critical minority, without fixing who we collaborate with," Ko told reporters after conceding. "We'll look at the issues. Whoever speaks reasonably, we will support."

Lai said he would co-operate with Ko and with Hou Yu-ih of Taiwan's largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), in resolving the problems Taiwan faces.

Taiwan's media reported the DPP won 51 seats to the KMT's 52, while the TPP got eight.

Turnout was about 72 per cent among the nearly 19 million eligible voters, with large lines seen at many polling stations.